The conditions over 94L have deteriorated today throughout the day. Recon did not go this morning, and I really do not think it will go through this system at all. As I discussed in the last post, shear is increasing over the system. The low-level center, if there is one, is moving ever so slowly WNW. With latitude will come more shear. There is a ribbon of very strong wind moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico and Cuba that will induce 40-60mph shear over 94L. This shear also may have created a quick spin up tornado north of Tampa this afternoon, which I will talk about in a minute.
The chances of this system NOT developing are quickly rising. Although 94L had a temporary boost in forward speed yesterday, but that has come to an end. This will give it a day or two under that vicious ribbon of fast moving air, which should remove most of the convection from the system.
Down the line a few days, we have to look into the Gulf of Mexico, which in this case is a very good thing. Most of the Gulf Coast is hurting for a lot of rain. No matter where 94L ends up it will be appreciated. Interesting to note is that shear is falling across the northern gulf coast to favorable levels, but I don’t think these will stick around. Those stagnant puzzle pieces I mentioned last week are beginning to move.
A week upper level low is spinning across north Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast. This was enough to spark off thunderstorms across North and Central Florida. Many of those went severe today because of some upper level cold air. This cold air allows the very warm air over land to rise very rapidly, and to drop large amounts of rain and often some hail. We saw both of these today. 1 inch hail and quite a few trees have been reported from Tampa to the Georgia border and beyond. The West Coast Sea Breeze (WCSB) had some responsibility in this matter. When these showers rain into the WCSB, they are forced to go up and become more intense. The WCSB, a gust coming from a decaying storm and the aforementioned shear overhead allowed for one storm to go tornadic just briefly. No damage was reported and the cell may have not dropped a tornado. The tornado was indicated on radar, and only lasted about 15 minutes.
An increase in moisture tomorrow will increase precipitation chances tomorrow across Florida to about 30%, and even a little bit higher on the west coast of FL. As 94L gets torn apart to our south, some of these clouds will be spreading across the area from the south. Rain chances overall will be going up at 94L gets closer.
Stay safe out there, and good night!