Before I provide an update, I want to make a quick correction to yesterday’s post. In the graphic that I posted, I had the ridge circulating in the wrong direction. This was caused by a change in my mind on what I wanted to put into my map. The graphic still stands, but areas of high pressure rotate clockwise. I apologize for this mistake.
Moving right along, the hurricane hunters are on their way into 90L as I type. I suspect they will find at least Tropical Depression 4, and possibly TS Don. The area of low pressure has a pressure of 1008 mb and is located off the northern tip of the Yucatan peninsula. The convection warmed, or became less intense, right before the 11am advisory this morning. Buoy data still does not support a closed center, but the storm is small so it may not be reaching the observation centers. The national hurricane center gave 90L a 100% chance of being a tropical depression or more, and I fully expect an upgrade in the next advisory window at 5pm. Convection is building once again, which should bring up the winds to between 35 and 40 mph.
I will update again over the next few hours if an upgrade does occur.