The National Hurricane Center saw enough convection and recon support to upgrade TD 2 to Tropical Storm Bret at 8pm. The official information from the NHC at 11pm is below:
- Location: 27.5°N 78.0°W
- Max sustained: 40 mph
- Moving: SE at 2 mph
- Min pressure: 1009 mb
- Tropical Storm Watch: Northwestern Bahamas
- Forecast Movement: slowly overnight
I disagree with the NHC on the forward speed. It seems to be moving a bit faster than 2 mph to the SE, which is a good thing for anyone on land. Recon is on its way toward Bret to get direct observations.
There are two possibilities with Bret beyond 24 hours. If Bret strengthens, then it may get caught in the Bermuda High to its east and head northward. If it remains weaker, it will be allowed to move northeast. I am going with the NHC, and going in the middle and a system going NNE. The chances of Bret becoming a hurricane are low, and this really does not look like a candidate for rapid intensification. Dry air to the north and a rather small window for low shear conditions will slow intensification.
As for the weather in FL…rain chances will be on the low side. The west side of TC’s near the Bahamas generally is drier because it drags the continental air from the SE US into FL. South FL may see rain bands, and the entire east coast of Florida may see higher waves and a rip current threat. Many of us may also see a pretty good light show tonight.
If you see any interesting weather in your area post them as a comment here, or send me a tweet @JonathanBelles. I’ll post them here as I get them. If recon finds anything of interest, I’ll post that as well.