Don is back on track

Tropical Storm Don has mostly recovered since last night, and has even strengthened a little bit. The only sign that Don is still disorganized is that its center is partially exposed on the northern side. The shear on top of Don is relatively strong for now, but the shear in Don’s path is both lighter and directionally favorable for growth.  The direction of shear should switch to a tailwind as Don moves to the NW.  The Hurricane Hunters are making passes through Don, and likely will be all day long. They have found winds that support a maximum wind of 50 mph and a pressure of 1002.0 mb. These winds are well removed from the center to the north and east, although I do expect more of a tightening up when shear overhead does change.

The information from the 11pm advisory along with more current personal estimates are:

  • Maximum Wind Speed: 50 mph (personal estimate)
  • Location: 24.1N 90.1W
  • Forward Speed: NW at 14 mph
  • Minimum central pressure: 1002.0 mb (recon)
  • Tropical Storm Warnings: Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass, Texas
  • Tropical Storm Watches: Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande River
There was a northward shift in the numerical model guidance this morning, along with an acceleration in forward speed.  In my evening update tonight if the models keep trending northward, I will take Mexico out of my cone of uncertainty.  A landfall along the central Texas coast is looking to be between 6p and midnight on Friday night.



Posted on Thursday, July 28th, 2011, in Tropical Weather and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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