Good early morning!

The Hurricane Hunters continue to investigate Tropical Storm Don.  Don is really blowing up a good about of thunderstorms over its center. A wobble here and there, but altogether Don is moving WNW (295 degrees) at  13 mph.  Shear has really come down in the last few analyses, and all other signals are green for growth tonight except one. I am a little bit worried about the continual convective process that is driven by the rush in of air underneath. According to CIMSS, there is actually air being removed from the center at the bottom. I do think that everything is finally coming together for Don, but shear may come back up before landfall tomorrow night.  Don has a pressure of 1001mb and estimated winds of 50 mph.

I expect Don to continue to intensify overnight with DMax and the very warm waters below. However, as we have seen over the last few days, Don is very fickle and could come down over night a little bit.  Over the last hour or so I have noticed a dry slot developing on the northerly side, which may work into Don’s core. I do not think that there will be a total drop out of convection has there has been over the last couple of days. I think the landfall will happen as follows:

• With winds of 60-65 mph
• Between Port Mansfield and Corpus Christi
• Time: 8pm and 12am Central Time
• 3-5″ near landfall
• 1-2′ storm surge near the landfall area
• Graphically shown below:

Also, I do want to mention a new invest that has been declared.  91L was declared earlier today east of the islands, and it has a 20% chance of formation during the next few days.  I will take a look at this tomorrow more in depth.  Until then follow me at twitter.com/JonathanBelles .  I will be doing updates throughout the day tomorrow from recon and surface updates.  Sleep well!