From One System…to Three! Ernesto: Status Quo…Invest 90L Forms
Good Morning! Not much happened overnight, but what did happen made it a somewhat busy night.
Ernesto: I’ll start with Ernesto, who seems to be fighting to put up new thunderstorms. Upper level shear is quite evident this morning with values running above 20 mph to the north of Ernesto. The hurricane hunters are still in Ernesto, and as of the last few minutes are finding a pressure of 1002 millibars and winds of 45 mph. Ernesto has returned to an almost due west movement this morning without sparing a mile per hour in forward speed, which is only causing him to leave cloud tops in the dust. The effects in the islands should be ending in about 6-10 hours or sooner. All tropical storm watches have been dropped. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Dominica, St. Lucia, Guadeloupe, and Martinique.
Overall forecast thinking for Ernesto is the same this morning, so I will just leave you with the spaghetti models. I lie on the southern side of the consensus and the NHC this morning with a weaker system when we get into the western Caribbean Sea.
Florida Tropical Wave: I’ve mentioned this wave in passing over the last few days, but a few models caught my eye overnight which make me want to bring it up again. If you look below, I’ve attached this morning’s NAM, which clearly shows a curved feature nearing the Florida east coast. It looks to be closed with a pressure around 1012 mb, and it might bring drier air to the western part of Florida and wetter weather to the east coast of FL and GA depending on how well it develops and where exactly it goes. This frame is from Sunday morning. I’ll be watching it!
Invest 90L: The newest member of the club this morning is a freshly hatched low pressure system off the coast of Africa. It was designated invest 90L this morning and models will be run on it later today, but the global models seem to like this system. The satellite image from this morning shows great outflow and good cyclonic-like structure. This might be the best candidate for the next name, which is Florence. That is probably a good 1-3 days away if it doesn’t pull an Atlantic poof. Slow development is possible with this system.