The tropical wave that is associated with Erika’s remnants has crossed into the Gulf of Mexico. As it passed over south and east central Florida, it brought 1-3″ of much needed rainfall to the drought area. Entirely as a rainmaker, Erika and an upper level trough will continue to pump in moisture across the peninsula, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Also, another name has been scratched off the Atlantic name list. Tropical Storm Fred is making a run at rapid intensification and the Cape Verde Islands…possibly a hurricane first for the islands. 

Upper level analyses and water vapor imagery show that an upper level low is spinning away in the tri-state area. This will help to funnel moisture into the Florida peninsula. This deep moisture feed goes deep into the Caribbean.

There are currently no signs of redevelopment of anything tropical, and the NHC gives this system a near 0% chance of becoming Erika again. This does not change the fact that flooding is a possibility. According to the WPC, another 1-2″ is possible for the Peninsula up into the coastal Carolinas. GFS and NAM currently agree with that. Interestingly, NAM shows a weak surface low  developing on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Fred

As a newcomer to the Atlantic, Fred rapidly intensified throughout today per the NHC. Hurricane warnings are in place for the Cape Verde Islands for the first time in history. Fred currently has winds of 70 mph and will likely become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow as it approaches the islands from the southeast. Winds upwards of 80 mph are possible as Fred passes through with heavy rain. Elevated areas could see 6-8″ while lower lying areas will see up to 5″ of rainfall. Seas will be high and minor inundation is possible as Fred moves by. As Fred gets past the islands, slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and then the lack of instability, the system is likely to weaken as it moves towards the NW and WNW at the end of the week.

Have a great night! Stay safe!

–Jonathan, @JonathanBelles

P.S. New video and photos from inside Hurricane Ignacio in the Pacific at https://twitter.com/403PA from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters