Daily Archives: Friday, August 5th, 2011

Emily Verification Report #1

Since Emily dissipated this afternoon, I have gone ahead with my first verification report.

You can see the graphic at the bottom of this post. The gold line is my forecast made a little more than 72 hours ago on Monday. The garnet line is the actual path that Emily took during the three days of the original forecast at 11am and 11pm each day ending tonight at 11pm tonight.  The 11pm position is a little suspect due to poor satellite appearance.  Overall, the forecast was too fast and somewhat too fast. Here are the exact coordinates for each forecast and the actual, as well as the forecast intensity and actual.

Date           – Forecast Coord  – Actual Coord  – Miles off – Direction

11pm Tue(T)  –  16.3N 68.0W   – 16.2N 66.7W   –   85 mi   –    93°

11pm Wed(W) –   18.3N 72.8W  – 17.1N 71.0W  –  125 mi –    125°

11pm Thu(R)  –    21.3N 76.6W  – 20.0N 74.6W –   211 mi –    115°

 

Date                 – Forecast Wind  –  Actual Wind

11pm Tue(T)   –        45 mph        –      50 mph

11pm Wed(W) –        60 mph       –      50 mph

11pm Thu(R)   –         50 mph      –      30 mph (dissipated)

 

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