Tropics are alive, and Florida is wet
Water water everywhere!!
We have a lot to talk about tonight both in the less-than Sunshine State and in the Tropics. Central Florida has had a lot of rain in the recent few days, where some received 2-5″ and 99% of the state received at least a little rain. Almost everyone in central and south Florida got a very well needed half inch of rain. We’ll look more at this in a minute, but I do want to take a look at the Tropics first since they have heated up.
In the Tropics…
Last week we mentioned a ‘blob’ developing in the Bay of Campeche. At the time it was going to develop at the tail end of the trough coming down into the Gulf of Mexico with the moisture from Beatriz. The models evolved and conditions changed. A new tropical wave is crossing the Yucatan Peninsula with plenty of moisture. My main concerns with this tropical wave is its proximity to the trough that has decayed because it will tend to take some of the moisture away from the wave axis, and add shear to the environment. Shear analysis shows 35mph shear out of the west that is stabilized for now. I don’t see any change in the shear through at least mid-week. They may drop by 5-10 mph by then, but I will not count on that. Conditions overall are marginal at best, and will not improve much. With that being said, the National Hurricane Center may declare this system as an invest by mid week. At this point, that is all I expect from it. The NHC has given it a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
The Not-So Sunshine State…
Although west central Florida was not under a drought at the last Drought Monitor last Thursday, if we were the latest rains would have broken the drought. I think that areas in southern, east central, and northeastern Florida will see a reduction in their drought categories when the next product comes out on Thursday (June 30th). The drought indices have dropped in the last 24 hours, and in fact three counties are reporting absolutely no fire danger!
Rain chances will remain high (50%+) from Gainesville south as the dying trough will pump in even more moisture. Unfortunately, rain chances will be low to nil in the Panhandle, where the drought will continue to get worse. Below I have posted a map of rainfall in the last 7 days in inches, and the percentage of rainfall as compared to normal in the last 180 days.
I personally have gotten a little more than 3″ of rain in the last 48 hours NW of St. Petersburg. I expect to get more tomorrow before the rain chances go back to 40-50%, a climatological normal for this time of year. As of 06/22, central and south Florida rainy season has begun! I will begin updating more frequently on the tropics as they are active, so I will see you all tomorrow.
If you have any flooding, lightning, or otherwise weather pictures, please send them to me via either twitter or as a comment to this post! Thank you in advance!