Tropical Storm Intensifies
Good afternoon everyone!
Recon flew early this morning, and is now wrapping up that flight. They found a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb, but the more interesting focus is where that center was found. The Hurricane Hunters found that center to the SW of where the NHC had thought it was. It is common for organizing and disorganized systems to jump around until they can settle on one center. With this relocation by the NHC, the track was also shifted to the south of Tampico. Movement is toward the west at 8 mph. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings have been issued for the coastline near where Arlene will make landfall. Although winds may be around 70 mph at landfall, the main threat remains the very heavy rainfall that will accumulate near the landfall point and in the inner mountainous regions of Mexico. A couple of the satellite estimates of Arlene currently put it near 60-65 mph now, but I am not willing to go that high quite yet. Satellite appearances have not improved that significantly, but as I mentioned a few days ago storms in this part of the Gulf tend to intensify faster than anywhere else in the Atlantic. Right now my estimate is 55-60 mph inside the storm on the eastern side.
Recon will be heading out soon for an evening flight in Arlene before she makes landfall.