Four Blobabilities…and the return of Emily??
The tropics are beginning to heat up as we head into mid-August. The NHC is watching two invests and the area of thunderstorms that caused a very wet 48 across Florida for possible tropical development…and Emily could make yet another comeback. The better models continue to hint that we may scratch both Franklin and Gert off the name list by the weekend or early next week. 92L and 93L are in the far east Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands both moving west to wnw at about 15 mph. Ex-Emily is moving WSW to the northeast of the lesser antilles. The mass of thunderstorms is moving NE up the Gulfstream.
Both invests 92 and 93 have increasing chances of development and plenty of time to do so. The conditions for development are increasingly favorable, with the only hold back is the Saharan Air Layer which will dissipate as the systems move away from Africa. There may also be some conflict between the two storms in a few days as 93L is moving slightly faster than 92L, which will allow it to get close enough for the two of them to share and fight for energy. Computer generated models continue to show the development of both of these. The GFS is also showing the possible re-generation of Emily in a few days. Emily has rounded the Azores High and has come back toward the Caribbean. The GFS has the remnants of Emily showing a few thunderstorms blowing up to the north of Puerto Rico, and then Hispaniola later in the week. As always the models are always less trustable before a system is well formed.