Tropical Storm Emily Verification Report #2
Below is the second verification report on Emily. This report looks at how accurate my forecast written last Tuesday was.
You can see the graphic at the bottom of this post. The aqua line is my forecast made last Monday. The garnet line is the actual path that Emily took during the three days of the original forecast at 11am and 11pm each day ending tonight at 11pm 72 hours after the initial forecast. The 11pm position is a little suspect due to poor satellite appearance and declassification. Overall, the forecast was a bit too fast and did not handle Haiti’s impacts well. Here are the exact coordinates for each forecast and the actual, as well as the forecast intensity and actual.
Date – Forecast Coord – Actual Coord – Miles off – Direction
11pm Wed(W) – 18.1N 71.4W – 17.1N 71.0W – 72 mi – 159°
11pm Thu(R) – 21.1N 75.6W – 20.0N 74.6W – 146 mi – 121°
11pm Fri(F) – 25.4N 78.6W – 24.0N 77.7W – 110 mi – 150°
Date – Forecast Wind – Actual Wind
11pm Wed(W) – 65 mph – 50 mph
11pm Thu(R) – 45 mph – 30 mph (dissipated)
11pm Fri(F) – 50 mph – 30 mph (Low)