Tropical Storm Emily: Forecast 1

Tropical Storm Emily seems to be holding her own tonight. Since the recon planes left for just a moment to rest Emily has really come to life as a legit tropical storm.  Emily will have cross stiff waters and probably climb a few high mountains during her lifetime.  A few of the obstacles Emily has to get past include: the eastern Caribbean death zone that is known for weakening tropical cyclones of all intensities, the Hispaniola and/or Cuba mountains, and dry air.  Conditions are marginally favorable for growth, but I do think Emily will be come a noteworthy tropical storm before leaving the Caribbean.  I will look at all of this, but first lets take a look at the current status of Emily before moving onto a forecast.

Synopsis:

Emily has pulled herself together since recon left, and a circulation is evident on radar. Convection encapsulates Emily, which is holding of a layer of dry air just to the north and northwest Emily. Satellite does show that cloud tops have warned over the last few hours.  Shear is low and upper level conditions are good. An upper air cyclone and much of its vorticity is rather diffuse.

  • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
  • Minimum Pressure: 1006 mb
  • Movement: W at 17 mph
  • Location 15.5N 62.9W or 100 miles west of Dominica
  • IKE: 0.732
Forecast (clickable — zoom):
  •  24 Hours — 11pm Tuesday:   45 mph    16.3N 68.0W
  • 48 Hours — 11pm Wednesday:  60 mph  18.3N 76.8W
  • 72 Hours — 11pm Thursday: 50 mph  21.3N 76.6W
Forecast Discussion:
Upon first glance at my forecast graphic, you will see that it is only a three day forecast.  I did this because of the high level of uncertainty of the forecast.  I also went a bit farther west of the NHC forecast.  I did this because I do not believe Emily will turn WNW immediately as the NHC is progging, but rather almost west.  Over the last few hours, Emily may have even gone just south of due West. Also, over the last half hour I have noticed what may be a center relocation to the east of the old center. More of these relocations are possible as Emily organizes. I do believe that a WNW turn should occur between 24 and 36 hours and turn generally more as time goes on more poleward. On this track, Emily will cross both Haiti and Cuba.

Track is entirely hinging on intensity as it often does. The stronger the system is able to get, the more to the right it will go.  The weaker the system stays or the more land it hits, the more left it will go. I do think that down the line Emily will become a strong tropical storm, but at this point I don’t see Emily becoming a hurricane.  There is just too much land, and conditions are not favorable enough to get much stronger than what I am forecasting. I also think that this has a very good chance of making some impact in the United States, whether it be a brush or a landfall. I’ll look at that more in detail in the days ahead.

Further Remarks:
For now, it is a very good time if you are anywhere in the Caribbean or southeastern US to get your hurricane kit ready and your plans in place for anything that may come your way. In the future, I may try to add a spanish forecast, although my spanish admittedly isn’t great.  Good night!!
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Posted on Tuesday, August 2nd, 2011, in Tropical Weather and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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