Tropical Storm Emily: Forecast 1
Tropical Storm Emily seems to be holding her own tonight. Since the recon planes left for just a moment to rest Emily has really come to life as a legit tropical storm. Emily will have cross stiff waters and probably climb a few high mountains during her lifetime. A few of the obstacles Emily has to get past include: the eastern Caribbean death zone that is known for weakening tropical cyclones of all intensities, the Hispaniola and/or Cuba mountains, and dry air. Conditions are marginally favorable for growth, but I do think Emily will be come a noteworthy tropical storm before leaving the Caribbean. I will look at all of this, but first lets take a look at the current status of Emily before moving onto a forecast.
Emily has pulled herself together since recon left, and a circulation is evident on radar. Convection encapsulates Emily, which is holding of a layer of dry air just to the north and northwest Emily. Satellite does show that cloud tops have warned over the last few hours. Shear is low and upper level conditions are good. An upper air cyclone and much of its vorticity is rather diffuse.
- Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
- Minimum Pressure: 1006 mb
- Movement: W at 17 mph
- Location 15.5N 62.9W or 100 miles west of Dominica
- IKE: 0.732
- 24 Hours — 11pm Tuesday: 45 mph 16.3N 68.0W
- 48 Hours — 11pm Wednesday: 60 mph 18.3N 76.8W
- 72 Hours — 11pm Thursday: 50 mph 21.3N 76.6W
Posted on Tuesday, August 2nd, 2011, in Tropical Weather and tagged Bahamas, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Florida, Haiti, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, Tropical Storm Emily. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.