Good morning everyone!

As organizing tropical storms generally do, Emily did a couple of center reformations on Tuesday, and will probably do some more over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center and I share the viewpoint that the current center location and direction is highly suspect even when recon planes are out investigating the system.  During the recon mission today, they discovered that the satellite appearance does not match what is going on below the cloud deck at the surface. My forecast yesterday notably busted timewise/trackwise because of the easterly reformations. With this in mind I have made my forecast below.

Synopsis:

Emily is doing much better than yesterday, especially this evening.  There have been no outrunning problems, except for maybe forecasters at the NHC today.  Emily reformed farther east and south a couple times today, enough that the NHC had called a stall during the afternoon hours to make up for time.  Emily did not actually stall, but its position over 6 hours did not change do to the reformation within their 6 hour forecasting period. Also of note tonight…I am seeing an outflow boundary moving away from Emily.  This is kinda like burping a baby.  The baby will put up a fuss for a couple hours, then burp, and calm down a bit.  This is the same thing Emily may do tonight. A satellite pass that shows winds inside of storms also showed Emily with a much weaker surface reflection that is to be expected. Some dry air is also noted on the western side of satellite at 2:30Z/10:30pm ET.  With this I expect a very temporary weakening. Below is the current information on Emily:

• Maximum Sustained Wind: 50 mph (this may have been as high as 60 mph early this evening and may still be between 50-60 mph)
• Movement: WNW at 14 mph
• Minimum pressure: 1005 mb
• Location: 16.2N 66.7W or 265 miles SE of Santo Domingo, DR
• IKE: 2.01