A hop, skip, and a Tropical Storm Emily Jump: Forecast 2

Good morning everyone!

As organizing tropical storms generally do, Emily did a couple of center reformations on Tuesday, and will probably do some more over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center and I share the viewpoint that the current center location and direction is highly suspect even when recon planes are out investigating the system.  During the recon mission today, they discovered that the satellite appearance does not match what is going on below the cloud deck at the surface. My forecast yesterday notably busted timewise/trackwise because of the easterly reformations. With this in mind I have made my forecast below.

Synopsis:

Emily is doing much better than yesterday, especially this evening.  There have been no outrunning problems, except for maybe forecasters at the NHC today.  Emily reformed farther east and south a couple times today, enough that the NHC had called a stall during the afternoon hours to make up for time.  Emily did not actually stall, but its position over 6 hours did not change do to the reformation within their 6 hour forecasting period. Also of note tonight…I am seeing an outflow boundary moving away from Emily.  This is kinda like burping a baby.  The baby will put up a fuss for a couple hours, then burp, and calm down a bit.  This is the same thing Emily may do tonight. A satellite pass that shows winds inside of storms also showed Emily with a much weaker surface reflection that is to be expected. Some dry air is also noted on the western side of satellite at 2:30Z/10:30pm ET.  With this I expect a very temporary weakening. Below is the current information on Emily:

  • Maximum Sustained Wind: 50 mph (this may have been as high as 60 mph early this evening and may still be between 50-60 mph)
  • Movement: WNW at 14 mph
  • Minimum pressure: 1005 mb
  • Location: 16.2N 66.7W or 265 miles SE of Santo Domingo, DR
  • IKE: 2.01
Forecast:
  • 24 Hours — 11pm Wednesday: 65 mph   18.1N 71.4W               **Moving inland
  • 48 Hours — 11pm Thursday: 45 mph       21.1 N 75.6W             **Near Cuba
  • 72 Hours — 11pm Friday: 50 mph            25.4N 78.6W             **Near the western Bahamas
Forecast Discussion:

Emily seems to want to stay on a westerly heading, so I have extrapolated out the current motion for my first 12 hours. From there I have a general WNW to NW turn near Haiti.  If any more reformations do occur, which they probably will, this forecast in the first day will be off in the direction of the reformation. On this track, Emily has more time over water, and less time over the very high mountains of Hispaniola.  For this reason I went up to 65 mph for a landfall wind reading in the southwestern Dominican Republic. There are mountains on that skinny little southern peninsula in southern Haiti, so I do bring Emily down to 45 mph, but it could go lower if Emily makes landfall farther east. I did go a bit farther east tonight with my forecast because of the track today and reformations.  Models have shifted back and forth during the day, and there is no general trending to the east or west. I can also see a few hints of the turn beginning to the WNW.

My thinking is similar to last night out to Friday.  I believe high pressure will keep Emily in the western Bahamas or straits between Andros Island and Florida.  Beyond this, we will have to see exactly how strong Emily and the high pressure is, but Emily should accelerate north and eastward away from Florida.  Near the Carolinas, Emily will be moving ENE away from the United States at the area of high pressure sling shots Emily toward the east.  I think this sling shot will be to the north of Bermuda, but they should be watching this system.

Further Remarks:  Recon has begun investigating this system, and if anything notable is reported I will update again before I go to bed. I will repeat myself every night until Emily dissipates…please prepare your hurricane kits now if you are in or anywhere near the cone of uncertainty. I have drawn in the wind swath of tropical storm force winds, which are almost reaching Puerto Rico, and will reach the Dominican Republic much earlier than the center of Emily comes ashore.  Emily has already indirectly caused a fatality in Martinique. Emily was not a tropical storm at the time, but it did a considerable amount of damage in some of the eastern islands.  Be careful and take necessary precautions!!  Tomorrow I will look at the possible risks for Florida, but everyone in Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas should expect 3-5″ of rain or more in mountainous areas.  Anyone in Haiti and the DR should expect mudslides and flash floods!!
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Posted on Wednesday, August 3rd, 2011, in Tropical Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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